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Topic · Management Science and Operations Research

Probability and Risk Models

Probability and Risk Models is a research topic within Management Science and Operations Research. Science Explorer counts 14k research works in it since 1950. 14.9% of them reached the world's top 10% most cited for their field and year.

This cluster of papers focuses on modeling various aspects of risk in insurance and finance, including ruin probabilities, optimal dividend policies, heavy-tailed distributions, stochastic processes, rare event simulation, and dependence modeling. The research covers a wide range of topics related to insurance risk management and financial modeling.

  • Insurance
  • Risk
  • Dividend
  • Ruin Probability
  • Heavy-Tailed Distributions
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Rare Event Simulation
  • Optimal Control
  • Dependence Modeling
  • Claim Reserving
Research works
14k
fractional, since 1950
In the world top 10%
2.1k
per year above
Top-10% rate
14.9%
share of its works in the world top 10%
Growth, 2013–17 → 2018–22
-13%
the tick is no change

Which countries lead Probability and Risk Models research?

By volume, China and the United States publish the most (328 and 171 works in 2022–2025).

By volume, 2022–2025

  1. 1 China 328 works
  2. 2 United States 171 works
  3. 3 India 92 works
  4. 4 Russia 62 works
  5. 5 France 58 works
  6. 6 Canada 54 works
  7. 7 Germany 52 works
  8. 8 United Kingdom 50 works
  9. 9 Italy 44 works
  10. 10 Japan 39 works

How concentrated that is

The same countries as shares of everything the list above accounts for. A node where two countries do two thirds of the work and one spread evenly across twelve read alike as a ranking and not at all alike here.

China: 34.6%United States: 18.0%India: 9.7%Russia: 6.5%6 others listed: 31.3%35%largest
China328 · 34.6%United States171 · 18.0%India92 · 9.7%Russia62 · 6.5%6 others listed297 · 31.3%

Shares of the rows listed above, not of the whole node.

Which institutions lead Probability and Risk Models research?

By volume in 2022–2025, Anhui University publishes the most Probability and Risk Models research, followed by University of Piraeus and Vilnius University.

By volume, 2022–2025

  1. 1 Anhui UniversityChina 22 works
  2. 2 University of PiraeusGreece 10 works
  3. 3 Vilnius UniversityLithuania 9 works
  4. 4 Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussia 9 works
  5. 5 Singapore Management UniversitySingapore 9 works
  6. 6 Henan Normal UniversityChina 9 works
  7. 7 Chizhou UniversityChina 9 works
  8. 8 Guilin University of TechnologyChina 8 works
  9. 9 Jilin UniversityChina 8 works
  10. 10 Soochow UniversityChina 7 works

Who are the leading researchers in Probability and Risk Models?

The most-cited researchers publishing on Probability and Risk Models include Mohamed‐Slim Alouini.

  1. 1 Mohamed‐Slim Alouini Saudi Arabia 5.9k citations

Ranked by citations received across their whole record, among researchers with at least three works on this topic.

Where is Probability and Risk Models research done?

The largest centres of Probability and Risk Models research in 2022–2025 are Beijing (China), Moscow (Russia), Hefei (China) and Nanjing (China). Among places with at least 20 works in it, it is an unusually large share of all research in Hefei.

Largest cities, 2022–2025

  1. 1 Beijing China 36 works
  2. 2 Moscow Russia 34 works
  3. 3 Hefei China 28 works
  4. 4 Nanjing China 21 works
  5. 5 Tokyo Japan 16 works
  6. 6 Paris France 15 works
  7. 7 Shanghai China 15 works
  8. 8 Sydney Australia 14 works
  9. 9 Singapore Singapore 13 works
  10. 10 London United Kingdom 13 works

Where it is the local speciality

  1. HefeiCN · 28.4 works5.2×
← less than its size predicts1×more →

Location quotient: how much more of its research is in Probability and Risk Models than the world average.

See Probability and Risk Models on the map

Where is the best place to study Probability and Risk Models?

Among universities, judged by research, Anhui University, University of Piraeus and Chizhou University score highest, combining excellence, specialisation, size, growth and international reach. Research strength is one signal when choosing where to study; it does not measure teaching.

0%1%2%3%mean 0.9625%fractional works in this node (log) →share in the world top 10% →Anhui University: 22, 2.0%University of Piraeus: 10, 2.8%Chizhou University: 8, 2.0%Singapore Management University: 9, 0.0%Henan Normal University: 9, 0.0%Vilnius University: 9, 0.0%Lomonosov Moscow State University: 9, 0.9%Guilin University of Technology: 8, 0.0%University of PiraeusAnhui UniversityChizhou UniversitySingapore Management…
above the meannear itbelow it

One dot per university in the table below. The upper left is the interesting corner: small places doing unusually strong work.

#UniversityScoreTop 10%SpecialisationWorksGrowth
1 Anhui UniversityChina 78.52.0%32.1×22 -10.1%
2 University of PiraeusGreece 69.22.8%97.8×10 -23.2%
3 Chizhou UniversityChina 54.32.0%333.8×8 —
4 Singapore Management UniversitySingapore 42.70.0%56.2×9 —
5 Henan Normal UniversityChina 41.40.0%28.8×9 +2.7%
6 Vilnius UniversityLithuania 40.70.0%25.7×9 -11.9%
7 Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussia 34.10.9%7.2×9 +4.3%
8 Guilin University of TechnologyChina 25.00.0%26.0×8 -57.9%

Universities only. Score blends excellence (30%), specialisation (25%), size (20%), growth (15%) and international reach (10%), 2015–2022; growth compares 2010–14 with 2015–19.

Is Probability and Risk Models research growing?

Output in 2018–2022 was 13% lower than in 2013–2017, peaking in 2013. The fastest-growing topics are Probability and Risk Models.

19801990200020102020
grewheldshrank

The same series as a ribbon — one cell per year, darker for more. The line above answers how much; this answers when.

Which topics inside it are moving

Growth and decline on one axis around a shared zero. Two lists side by side hide the thing that matters: whether the growth dwarfs the decline, or the other way round.