Science Explorer Back to mapMap
Discussion
Topic · Management Science and Operations Research

Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting

Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting is a research topic within Management Science and Operations Research. Science Explorer counts 17k research works in it since 1951. 10.2% of them reached the world's top 10% most cited for their field and year.

This cluster of papers focuses on the models, dynamics, and factors influencing the diffusion of technology and innovation across different markets and countries. It explores concepts such as innovation diffusion, agent-based modeling, market penetration, global technology spillover, forecasting models like S-curves and long-wave theory, and the impact of technological paradigms on adoption.

  • Innovation Diffusion
  • Agent-Based Modeling
  • New Product Growth
  • Market Penetration
  • Global Technology Spillover
  • Forecasting Models
  • S-Curves
  • Long-Wave Theory
  • Mobile Telephony
  • Technological Paradigms
Research works
17k
fractional, since 1951
In the world top 10%
1.7k
per year above
Top-10% rate
10.2%
share of its works in the world top 10%
Growth, 2018-21 → 2022-25
+35%
the tick is no change
Largest producer
China
47% of the 10 largest, 2022-now
Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting

Which countries lead Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting research?

By volume, China and the United States publish the most (1.3k and 447 works in 2022-now).

By volume, 2022-now

  1. 1 China 1.3k works
  2. 2 United States 447 works
  3. 3 India 225 works
  4. 4 United Kingdom 137 works
  5. 5 Germany 135 works
  6. 6 Russia 123 works
  7. 7 Italy 102 works
  8. 8 South Korea 101 works
  9. 9 Indonesia 95 works
  10. 10 Japan 76 works

How concentrated that is

The same countries as shares of everything the list above accounts for. A node where two countries do two thirds of the work and one spread evenly across twelve read alike as a ranking and not at all alike here.

China: 47.0%United States: 16.4%India: 8.3%United Kingdom: 5.0%6 others listed: 23.2%47%largest
China1,278 · 47.0%United States447 · 16.4%India225 · 8.3%United Kingdom137 · 5.0%6 others listed631 · 23.2%

Shares of the rows listed above, not of the whole node.

Which institutions lead Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting research?

By volume in 2022-now, Russian Academy of Sciences publishes the most Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting research, followed by Wuhan University and Wuhan University of Technology.

By volume, 2022-now

  1. 1 Russian Academy of SciencesRussia 19 works
  2. 2 Wuhan UniversityChina 17 works
  3. 3 Wuhan University of TechnologyChina 15 works
  4. 4 Chinese Academy of SciencesChina 14 works
  5. 5 Xiamen UniversityChina 13 works
  6. 6 Shanghai UniversityChina 13 works
  7. 7 Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityChina 13 works
  8. 8 Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueFrance 13 works
  9. 9 Jiangsu UniversityChina 12 works
  10. 10 Beijing Jiaotong UniversityChina 12 works

Who are the leading researchers in Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting?

The most-cited researchers publishing on Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting include Marko Sarstedt, Christian M. Ringle and Harry Eugene Stanley.

  1. 1 Marko Sarstedt Germany 221k citations
  2. 2 Christian M. Ringle Germany 215k citations
  3. 3 Harry Eugene Stanley United States 198k citations
  4. 4 Claes Fornell United States 198k citations
  5. 5 Kathleen M. Eisenhardt United States 169k citations
  6. 6 Michael E. Porter United States 165k citations

Ranked by citations received across their whole record, among researchers with at least three works on this topic.

What are the most cited papers in Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting?

The most cited paper in Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting is "Absorptive Capacity: A New Perspective on Learning and Innovation" (Wesley M. Cohen, Daniel A. Levinthal, 1990), with 35,497 citations. Next come "Consumer Acceptance and Use of Information Technology: Extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology1" (15,587) and "Development of an Instrument to Measure the Perceptions of Adopting an Information Technology Innovation" (9,182).

Most cited papers
#PaperReleasedCitations
1 Absorptive Capacity: A New Perspective on Learning and Innovation Wesley M. Cohen, Daniel A. Levinthal · Administrative Science Quarterly Mar 1990 35,497
2 Consumer Acceptance and Use of Information Technology: Extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology1 Viswanath Venkatesh, James Y.L. Thong, Xu · MIS Quarterly Mar 2012 15,587
3 Development of an Instrument to Measure the Perceptions of Adopting an Information Technology Innovation Gary C. Moore, Izak Benbasat · Information Systems Research Sep 1991 9,182
4 The Effect of a Market Orientation on Business Profitability John C. Narver, Stanley F. Slater · Journal of Marketing Oct 1990 7,969
5 Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events W. Brian Arthur · The Economic Journal Mar 1989 7,491
All 99 most cited papers, with filters and sorting

Where is Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting research done?

The largest centres of Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting research in 2022-now are Beijing (China), Shanghai (China), Nanjing (China) and Wuhan (China). Among places with at least 20 works in it, it is an unusually large share of all research in Tianjin.

Largest cities, 2022-now

  1. 1 BeijingChina 183 works
  2. 2 ShanghaiChina 108 works
  3. 3 NanjingChina 72 works
  4. 4 WuhanChina 70 works
  5. 5 GuangzhouChina 59 works
  6. 6 Xi'anChina 54 works
  7. 7 SeoulSouth Korea 54 works
  8. 8 MoscowRussia 53 works
  9. 9 ChengduChina 44 works
  10. 10 TianjinChina 43 works

Where it is the local speciality

  1. TianjinCN · 42.8 works2.4×
← less than its size predicts1×more →

Location quotient: how much more of its research is in Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting than the world average.

See Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting on the map

Where is the best place to study Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting?

Among universities, judged by research, Wuhan University, Xiamen University and Tianjin University score highest, combining excellence, specialisation, size, growth and international reach. Research strength is one signal when choosing where to study; it does not measure teaching.

0%20%40%mean 19.49%fractional works in this field (log) →share of work in the world top 10% →Tianjin UniversityWuhan UniversityShanghai UniversityXiamen University
above the meannear itbelow it

One dot per university in the first ten of the table below, at the default weights. The upper left is the interesting corner: small places doing unusually strong work.

Excellenceshare of its work in the world top 10%, 2022-now and all time averaged
40%
Specialisationhow much of its work is in this field, counted up to 10× the world share
10%
Sizeits output in this field, on a log scale
30%
Growthoutput growth, counted from -20% to +20%
10%
Internationalshare of its work with a co-author abroad
10%
Each slider sets a weight; the share it gets of the score is beside it.
#UniversityScoreTop 10%SpecialisationWorksGrowth
1Wuhan UniversityChina 83.121.4%3.5×17 +190.2%
2Xiamen UniversityChina 68.016.1%4.6×13 +404.8%
3Tianjin UniversityChina 67.124.4%2.9×12 +3.0%
4Shanghai UniversityChina 66.017.0%5.4×13 +153.8%
5Beijing Jiaotong UniversityChina 62.518.4%5.9×12 +30.8%
6Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityChina 59.528.9%1.8×10 -7.9%
7Jiangsu UniversityChina 59.013.9%4.6×12 +107.9%
8Chongqing UniversityChina 58.727.6%2.3×9 +99.0%
9Wuhan University of TechnologyChina 55.47.7%5.5×15 +117.3%
10Hunan UniversityChina 52.519.5%3.7×9 +99.2%

Universities only. The score blends excellence (40%), size (30%), specialisation (10%), growth (10%), international reach (10%), 2022-now; growth compares 2018-21 with 2022-25 and counts up to +20%, since a jump from a small base is mostly noise.

Every institution in Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting, country by country

Is Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting research growing?

Output in 2022-2025 was 35% higher than in 2018-2021, peaking in 2025. The fastest-growing topics are Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting.

still counting19801990200020102020
grewheldshrank

The same series as a ribbon: one cell per year, darker for more. The line above answers how much; this answers when.

Its share of all research

Growing output can still be a shrinking share: all of science grows. This is Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting as a percentage of every work published that year, 0.018% in 2024.

still counting0.010%0.020%0.030%Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting0.017% in 202519801990200020102020

Fractional works of Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting over all fractional works that year. How the balance of science has shifted.

How much of it reaches the world top 10%

Year by year.

still counting5%10%15%Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting10.5% in 2025200020102020

Of each year's works in it, the share that reached the world's 10% most cited for their field and year. A field is the world for its own topics, so there is no other line to hold it against.

Which topics inside it are moving

Growth and decline on one axis around a shared zero. Two lists side by side hide the thing that matters: whether the growth dwarfs the decline, or the other way round.

Discussion

Ask a question or share a note about Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting. Posts are plain text and can be reported.